{"generated_at": "2026-10-25T05:31:56.373399+00:00", "evaluation_type": "synthetic reporting orders on real TSE section votes", "development_year": 2014, "heldout_years": [], "config": {"ridge": 30.0, "global_sd": 0.22, "state_sd": 0.16, "local_sd": 0.22, "graph_strength": 1.0, "demographic_strength": 0.2, "partial_sd": 0.16, "observation_floor": 0.025, "turnout_state_sd": 0.04, "interval_scale": 2.3021185320610273, "national_floor": 0.004, "poll_half_life_days": 14.0, "poll_common_sd": 0.025, "poll_house_sd": 0.012, "poll_extra_sd": 0.01}, "summaries": {"2014_development": {"checkpoints": 40, "mae_pp": 0.31626478742895103, "median_absolute_error_pp": 0.1987215426810518, "p90_absolute_error_pp": 0.811627567261586, "worst_absolute_error_pp": 1.8071829349109947, "raw_mae_pp": 6.460191271387347, "improvement_over_raw": 0.9510440520809793, "coverage_95": 0.95, "mean_brier": 0.01719051353623964, "by_progress": [{"section_fraction": 0.01, "mae_pp": 2.1085848642065415, "raw_mae_pp": 10.817841923864563, "coverage_95": 0.875}, {"section_fraction": 0.05, "mae_pp": 1.7314875695387906, "raw_mae_pp": 12.470100345639985, "coverage_95": 0.875}, {"section_fraction": 0.1, "mae_pp": 1.2753640308705365, "raw_mae_pp": 12.886896269137495, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.2, "mae_pp": 0.811976128047822, "raw_mae_pp": 12.347087816021384, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.4, "mae_pp": 0.37177339925615477, "raw_mae_pp": 9.55961585829946, "coverage_95": 0.875}, {"section_fraction": 0.6, "mae_pp": 0.2233497570865564, "raw_mae_pp": 6.5308855930774525, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.8, "mae_pp": 0.1392174917993677, "raw_mae_pp": 3.196334398122571, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.95, "mae_pp": 0.0350071609548544, "raw_mae_pp": 0.6670326914158753, "coverage_95": 0.875}, {"section_fraction": 1.0, "mae_pp": 0.0, "raw_mae_pp": 0.0, "coverage_95": 1.0}]}, "2018_calibration": {"checkpoints": 40, "mae_pp": 0.6132487217453366, "median_absolute_error_pp": 0.28018626320102935, "p90_absolute_error_pp": 1.4698737240212922, "worst_absolute_error_pp": 3.4409045171545527, "raw_mae_pp": 7.409819738438548, "improvement_over_raw": 0.9172383751032296, "coverage_95": 0.925, "mean_brier": 0.00025921126840666925, "by_progress": [{"section_fraction": 0.01, "mae_pp": 2.2792943627606608, "raw_mae_pp": 11.020998880353451, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.05, "mae_pp": 1.492590645023021, "raw_mae_pp": 13.937047601800694, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.1, "mae_pp": 1.6591467149557246, "raw_mae_pp": 15.529951069324436, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.2, "mae_pp": 1.1237590122997063, "raw_mae_pp": 14.682785289349303, "coverage_95": 0.875}, {"section_fraction": 0.4, "mae_pp": 1.0467453569921563, "raw_mae_pp": 10.79053333677076, "coverage_95": 0.875}, {"section_fraction": 0.6, "mae_pp": 0.6207988082147029, "raw_mae_pp": 7.339898264183068, "coverage_95": 0.875}, {"section_fraction": 0.8, "mae_pp": 0.23073812632799437, "raw_mae_pp": 3.527764389836368, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.95, "mae_pp": 0.04420230489212279, "raw_mae_pp": 0.708117412053247, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 1.0, "mae_pp": 0.0, "raw_mae_pp": 0.0, "coverage_95": 1.0}]}, "2022": {"checkpoints": 40, "mae_pp": 0.5167074434358293, "median_absolute_error_pp": 0.28648027449916236, "p90_absolute_error_pp": 1.1464896246398906, "worst_absolute_error_pp": 2.5795768185599477, "raw_mae_pp": 5.678005750356162, "improvement_over_raw": 0.9089984289988755, "coverage_95": 1.0, "mean_brier": 0.03105023618522242, "by_progress": [{"section_fraction": 0.01, "mae_pp": 1.5584765468552282, "raw_mae_pp": 11.18760681816081, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.05, "mae_pp": 1.437900494688845, "raw_mae_pp": 11.141282498383896, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.1, "mae_pp": 1.3840014886429448, "raw_mae_pp": 12.309900476544122, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.2, "mae_pp": 1.1136229367799635, "raw_mae_pp": 11.45741852367556, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.4, "mae_pp": 0.8260879264760115, "raw_mae_pp": 8.234679198848546, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.6, "mae_pp": 0.4916455754094787, "raw_mae_pp": 5.538674895073665, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.8, "mae_pp": 0.10984673960945102, "raw_mae_pp": 2.6105130957524634, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.95, "mae_pp": 0.042334038904241755, "raw_mae_pp": 0.5487430384305734, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 1.0, "mae_pp": 0.0, "raw_mae_pp": 0.0, "coverage_95": 1.0}]}}, "readiness": {"passed": true, "checks": {"median_error": true, "p90_error": true, "coverage": true, "beats_raw": true}, "criteria": {"minimum_progress": 0.2, "maximum_median_absolute_error_pp": 0.75, "maximum_p90_absolute_error_pp": 1.5, "minimum_95_interval_coverage": 0.9, "minimum_improvement_over_raw_count": 0.25}, "scope": "retrospective section-order stress tests, not an actual section-timestamp replay", "allows": "experimental vote-share projections only; no automatic race calls", "evaluation_elections": [2022], "calibration_elections": [2018], "minimum_live_progress": 0.2, "poll_forecast_calibrated": false}, "rows": [{"year": 2014, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.009970260920948708, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5168844006903238, "raw_share_a": 0.5174781712921607, "error_pp": 0.049303966667024746, "raw_error_pp": 0.1086810268507099, "interval_95": [0.4996762697002038, 0.5340925316804438], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0087798199304273, "probability_a": 0.9727657459931706, "brier": 0.0007417045913085053, "expected_valid": 101884274, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.04990117087965312, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5145027428084041, "raw_share_a": 0.517653711073934, "error_pp": -0.1888618215249438, "raw_error_pp": 0.1262350050280414, "interval_95": [0.5013100770676014, 0.5276954085492068], "covered": true, "sd": 0.006731075540572501, "probability_a": 0.9844032360973409, "brier": 0.00024325904423528905, "expected_valid": 102031228, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.09984459023352661, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5145963560600983, "raw_share_a": 0.5179951270779312, "error_pp": -0.17950049635552245, "raw_error_pp": 0.1603766054277589, "interval_95": [0.5027544953728659, 0.5264382167473308], "covered": true, "sd": 0.006041876629995493, "probability_a": 0.992151051918772, "brier": 6.160598598181344e-05, "expected_valid": 102214325, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.19983167313442263, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5151195440497036, "raw_share_a": 0.517211315381873, "error_pp": -0.12718169739499574, "raw_error_pp": 0.08199543582194657, "interval_95": [0.5049438043275866, 0.5252952837718207], "covered": true, "sd": 0.005191799299434618, "probability_a": 0.9982055208460219, "brier": 3.2201554340620418e-06, "expected_valid": 102584895, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.39985739173913754, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.515866888631032, "raw_share_a": 0.5174986845365908, "error_pp": -0.052447239262154444, "raw_error_pp": 0.11073235129371861, "interval_95": [0.5084057841191088, 0.5233279931429553], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0038067558954773136, "probability_a": 0.9999846416449336, "brier": 2.3587907034518615e-10, "expected_valid": 103319674, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5998097558501512, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163542909711151, "raw_share_a": 0.5169571229321533, "error_pp": -0.0037070052538501486, "raw_error_pp": 0.05657619084997734, "interval_95": [0.511442242638618, 0.5212663393036121], "covered": true, "sd": 0.002506193140535754, "probability_a": 0.999999999966124, "brier": 1.1475842639431461e-21, "expected_valid": 104057284, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7998054011969213, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163991972117435, "raw_share_a": 0.516673134843238, "error_pp": 0.000783618808997133, "raw_error_pp": 0.028177381958438552, "interval_95": [0.5139661296430146, 0.5188322647804725], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0012413838053805656, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104795877, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9499491165971004, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163711611533784, "raw_share_a": 0.516399351289279, "error_pp": -0.002019987027512826, "raw_error_pp": 0.0007990265625479331, "interval_95": [0.5157654315445731, 0.5169768907621838], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00030905139523242585, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105354845, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "raw_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5163913610236536, 0.5163913610236536], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105542273, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.009987959990211695, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.4856677499572905, "raw_share_a": 0.5786471021256897, "error_pp": -3.072361106636307, "raw_error_pp": 6.225574110203613, "interval_95": [0.4279176968299834, 0.5434178030845976], "covered": true, "sd": 0.02946485401125078, "probability_a": 0.3133352388481791, "brier": 0.47150849420768715, "expected_valid": 101872892, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.051820269210991886, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.4783618478945776, "raw_share_a": 0.6335580389850196, "error_pp": -3.8029513129075987, "raw_error_pp": 11.716667796136605, "interval_95": [0.4289447140260948, 0.5277789817630604], "covered": true, "sd": 0.02521328650346782, "probability_a": 0.1953898177690317, "brier": 0.6473975453497521, "expected_valid": 102063561, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.10035765479487067, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.4928322672354829, "raw_share_a": 0.6586817850306482, "error_pp": -2.355909378817067, "raw_error_pp": 14.229042400699466, "interval_95": [0.4514944942044701, 0.5341700402664957], "covered": true, "sd": 0.021091087913355986, "probability_a": 0.36698605757091995, "brier": 0.40070665130960664, "expected_valid": 102401654, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.19736352466087215, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5021901225522957, "raw_share_a": 0.6884783363765917, "error_pp": -1.4201238471357902, "raw_error_pp": 17.208697535293815, "interval_95": [0.4671136618967089, 0.5372665832078825], "covered": true, "sd": 0.017896482106603384, "probability_a": 0.5486998788868325, "brier": 0.2036717993167597, "expected_valid": 102837073, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.390693452281438, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5111705901794039, "raw_share_a": 0.6449382225032694, "error_pp": -0.5220770844249656, "raw_error_pp": 12.85468614796158, "interval_95": [0.4833243424055043, 0.5390168379533036], "covered": true, "sd": 0.014207530227034592, "probability_a": 0.7841378220372446, "brier": 0.04659647987482429, "expected_valid": 103350582, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5977699286427155, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5116011014109406, "raw_share_a": 0.5748809117870144, "error_pp": -0.4790259612712955, "raw_error_pp": 5.8489550763360825, "interval_95": [0.4988253489483852, 0.524376853873496], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00651836077731805, "probability_a": 0.9624421712511234, "brier": 0.0014105905003299407, "expected_valid": 104366940, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.80618631361104, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5165364775503877, "raw_share_a": 0.5294119285525302, "error_pp": 0.014511652673410147, "raw_error_pp": 1.3020567528876592, "interval_95": [0.5119870982643259, 0.5210858568364495], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0023211545140940644, "probability_a": 0.9999999999994768, "brier": 2.7378858619442407e-25, "expected_valid": 105100638, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9532537355908566, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5165275282782021, "raw_share_a": 0.5161919811082488, "error_pp": 0.013616725454856926, "raw_error_pp": -0.019937991540475153, "interval_95": [0.5144777285512072, 0.5185773280051971], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0010458353964638754, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105581209, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "raw_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5163913610236536, 0.5163913610236536], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105542273, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.009145927717512773, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.49297653193496466, "raw_share_a": 0.5158440745813141, "error_pp": -2.3414829088688913, "raw_error_pp": -0.054728644233947854, "interval_95": [0.4316743828490513, 0.5542786810208781], "covered": true, "sd": 0.03127718115532396, "probability_a": 0.41116248094902, "brier": 0.34672962384211325, "expected_valid": 101837185, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.04672039799635545, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5056874668721267, "raw_share_a": 0.5204785988659043, "error_pp": -1.0703894151526838, "raw_error_pp": 0.4087237842250735, "interval_95": [0.46319200950414263, 0.5481829242401108], "covered": true, "sd": 0.021681754036290517, "probability_a": 0.6034610129653688, "brier": 0.15724316823845141, "expected_valid": 101807372, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.09305358621563892, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5169619055383651, "raw_share_a": 0.4925866149032179, "error_pp": 0.05705445147115018, "raw_error_pp": -2.3804746120435647, "interval_95": [0.48725143440350055, 0.5466723766732295], "covered": true, "sd": 0.015158682065009614, "probability_a": 0.8684206472902214, "brier": 0.017313126059524325, "expected_valid": 101933675, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.19377173163591047, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5196813501711972, "raw_share_a": 0.46215351940083055, "error_pp": 0.3289989147543637, "raw_error_pp": -5.423784162282303, "interval_95": [0.5001121661401299, 0.5392505342022645], "covered": true, "sd": 0.009984460954929443, "probability_a": 0.9756493877382415, "brier": 0.0005929523175225033, "expected_valid": 102288012, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.40221903312618634, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5197915613381238, "raw_share_a": 0.42958472865409814, "error_pp": 0.3400200314470192, "raw_error_pp": -8.680663236955544, "interval_95": [0.5036625379396686, 0.5359205847365789], "covered": true, "sd": 0.008229244720033195, "probability_a": 0.9919143795688952, "brier": 6.537725775589992e-05, "expected_valid": 103021660, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.6092191609327952, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5152795030991834, "raw_share_a": 0.43396541514462844, "error_pp": -0.11118579244702165, "raw_error_pp": -8.242594587902513, "interval_95": [0.506262006706904, 0.5242969994914627], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0046008479708195315, "probability_a": 0.9995515526936064, "brier": 2.0110498661167145e-07, "expected_valid": 104037421, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.8025862584937885, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5118151697737574, "raw_share_a": 0.4740285954448651, "error_pp": -0.45761912498961665, "raw_error_pp": -4.236276557878849, "interval_95": [0.5072068793591361, 0.5164234601883787], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0023512117644106296, "probability_a": 0.9999997484681229, "brier": 6.32682851997549e-14, "expected_valid": 104551896, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.94823015608163, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5146887765748658, "raw_share_a": 0.5099723350798913, "error_pp": -0.17025844487877917, "raw_error_pp": -0.6419025943762313, "interval_95": [0.5136866189642197, 0.5156909341855118], "covered": false, "sd": 0.0005113142948778884, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105326413, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "raw_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5163913610236536, 0.5163913610236536], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105542273, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.010720396366676696, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5276882688396587, "raw_share_a": 0.43083640091740283, "error_pp": 1.129690781600512, "raw_error_pp": -8.555496010625074, "interval_95": [0.4795305661355182, 0.5758459715437991], "covered": true, "sd": 0.024570707780418668, "probability_a": 0.870103644975266, "brier": 0.016873063048711726, "expected_valid": 101911771, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.0552646900071974, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5243741776242086, "raw_share_a": 0.4287799551533142, "error_pp": 0.7982816600554998, "raw_error_pp": -8.761140587033939, "interval_95": [0.49942495482049853, 0.5493234004279186], "covered": true, "sd": 0.01272942911385618, "probability_a": 0.9722403250440176, "brier": 0.0007705995536617974, "expected_valid": 102124028, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.11161160988071576, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5256651041928699, "raw_share_a": 0.4380076033916869, "error_pp": 0.9273743169216364, "raw_error_pp": -7.8383757631966695, "interval_95": [0.5083842709752131, 0.5429459374105268], "covered": true, "sd": 0.008816913584972406, "probability_a": 0.9981980208813734, "brier": 3.2471287439661618e-06, "expected_valid": 102360711, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.22408195624136312, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5243448729164355, "raw_share_a": 0.45021371774070146, "error_pp": 0.7953511892781928, "raw_error_pp": -6.617764328295212, "interval_95": [0.5129795090805448, 0.5357102367523262], "covered": true, "sd": 0.005798761526176374, "probability_a": 0.9999865529971722, "brier": 1.8082188505068154e-10, "expected_valid": 102812884, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.44111135449963257, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5209638650948455, "raw_share_a": 0.4666826832563309, "error_pp": 0.45725040711919185, "raw_error_pp": -4.970867776732268, "interval_95": [0.5137075185423641, 0.5282202116473269], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00370228562998168, "probability_a": 0.9999999925369862, "brier": 5.569657441974204e-17, "expected_valid": 103638668, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.6435897491046076, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5187925619283991, "raw_share_a": 0.48163015814653976, "error_pp": 0.2401200904745493, "raw_error_pp": -3.4761202877113817, "interval_95": [0.5143080375321383, 0.5232770863246599], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0022880646768311777, "probability_a": 0.9999999999999999, "brier": 1.232595164407831e-32, "expected_valid": 104352621, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.8273942707297957, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5164377691354718, "raw_share_a": 0.5001897965798413, "error_pp": 0.004640811181821913, "raw_error_pp": -1.6201564443812266, "interval_95": [0.5143195707320286, 0.518555967538915], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0010807333213483671, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104997921, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9582514960616776, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163099370476896, "raw_share_a": 0.5141564519022452, "error_pp": -0.00814239759640012, "raw_error_pp": -0.2234909121408335, "interval_95": [0.5158016889902619, 0.5168181851051172], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0002593149963099877, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105439422, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "raw_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5163913610236536, 0.5163913610236536], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105542273, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.008003257614131544, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5199611738092268, "raw_share_a": 0.5170584906509195, "error_pp": 0.3569812785573223, "raw_error_pp": 0.06671296272658944, "interval_95": [0.5010886809667086, 0.538833666651745], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00962899973801471, "probability_a": 0.980915103848974, "brier": 0.00036423326109544864, "expected_valid": 101861755, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.041765378693331724, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.512534295774981, "raw_share_a": 0.5673404320722285, "error_pp": -0.38570652486725754, "raw_error_pp": 5.094907104857493, "interval_95": [0.49732357134923555, 0.5277450202007264], "covered": true, "sd": 0.007760716230372307, "probability_a": 0.9468549632467649, "brier": 0.002824394931502712, "expected_valid": 101948410, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.08471986385966881, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5122230804767056, "raw_share_a": 0.5832994744633663, "error_pp": -0.41682805469479556, "raw_error_pp": 6.69081134397127, "interval_95": [0.4999437865472257, 0.5245023744061855], "covered": true, "sd": 0.006265060954935864, "probability_a": 0.9744709696996078, "brier": 0.000651731388078344, "expected_valid": 102078881, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.17258550040892146, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5129596179750214, "raw_share_a": 0.594164797426482, "error_pp": -0.3431743048632141, "raw_error_pp": 7.777343640282841, "interval_95": [0.5021456409061347, 0.5237735950439082], "covered": true, "sd": 0.005517436579899794, "probability_a": 0.9905841950113502, "brier": 8.865738358428248e-05, "expected_valid": 102389476, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.3564265950573189, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5132147589992576, "raw_share_a": 0.5796070681238776, "error_pp": -0.3176602024395958, "raw_error_pp": 6.321570710022407, "interval_95": [0.5047108620230846, 0.5217186559754307], "covered": true, "sd": 0.004338802639320412, "probability_a": 0.9988393636644676, "brier": 1.3470767033581423e-06, "expected_valid": 103041197, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5588765081835977, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5151237325225982, "raw_share_a": 0.5552239237650147, "error_pp": -0.1267628501055329, "raw_error_pp": 3.8832562741361154, "interval_95": [0.509160873772518, 0.5210865912726785], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0030423307520343673, "probability_a": 0.9999996671307055, "brier": 1.1080196719531286e-13, "expected_valid": 103753763, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7758307232970053, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163492626137104, "raw_share_a": 0.5355008268022821, "error_pp": -0.0042098409943180926, "raw_error_pp": 1.9109465778628487, "interval_95": [0.5131587577553646, 0.5195397674720562], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0016278385002713683, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104578210, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9446955155115904, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5164512033208607, "raw_share_a": 0.5216532394984131, "error_pp": 0.005984229720712442, "raw_error_pp": 0.5261878474759563, "interval_95": [0.5155400305083477, 0.5173623761333737], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00046489262686101016, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105267030, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "raw_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5163913610236536, 0.5163913610236536], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105542273, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.009872792866608056, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.49227844012627936, "raw_share_a": 0.5282376052906103, "error_pp": -2.4112920897374215, "raw_error_pp": 1.1846244266956685, "interval_95": [0.42280019351885156, 0.5617566867337072], "covered": true, "sd": 0.035448736103024236, "probability_a": 0.4137834036747804, "brier": 0.34364989780712546, "expected_valid": 101897611, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.04903613360686291, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.4956921369970218, "raw_share_a": 0.6307988681035324, "error_pp": -2.0699224026631766, "raw_error_pp": 11.44075070798788, "interval_95": [0.4463554076471293, 0.5450288663469144], "covered": true, "sd": 0.025172263036409105, "probability_a": 0.43205868656835944, "brier": 0.32255733550245697, "expected_valid": 101976505, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.09596200377454445, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.4964951882002878, "raw_share_a": 0.6654116370696506, "error_pp": -1.9896172823365754, "raw_error_pp": 14.902027604599699, "interval_95": [0.44745967435445283, 0.5455307020461229], "covered": true, "sd": 0.02501857883401684, "probability_a": 0.4442950867224996, "brier": 0.3088079506407542, "expected_valid": 102231654, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.19172930831231955, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5107859844485303, "raw_share_a": 0.6363859598161592, "error_pp": -0.5605376575123278, "raw_error_pp": 11.999459879250562, "interval_95": [0.47119071857176464, 0.550381250325296], "covered": true, "sd": 0.020202037321484293, "probability_a": 0.7032966377722112, "brier": 0.08803288515727446, "expected_valid": 102478103, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.38506239106675294, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5147019617645578, "raw_share_a": 0.590701681776441, "error_pp": -0.16893992590957252, "raw_error_pp": 7.431032075278743, "interval_95": [0.4839258841014764, 0.5454780394276393], "covered": true, "sd": 0.015702368851204126, "probability_a": 0.825437902020238, "brier": 0.030471926051096016, "expected_valid": 103157198, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5824113149429707, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5139872866200476, "raw_share_a": 0.5839109929435341, "error_pp": -0.24040744036060158, "raw_error_pp": 6.751963191988053, "interval_95": [0.4890862155787368, 0.5388883576613582], "covered": true, "sd": 0.012704861436899204, "probability_a": 0.8645385537626975, "brier": 0.018349803416701595, "expected_valid": 103664910, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7853232514710007, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5186003916355713, "raw_share_a": 0.5581955731546004, "error_pp": 0.2209030611917684, "raw_error_pp": 4.180421213094688, "interval_95": [0.5135496980870711, 0.5236510851840714], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0025769317949208064, "probability_a": 0.9999999999997363, "brier": 6.952607099237921e-26, "expected_valid": 104338869, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9486328572817453, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5166403174689711, "raw_share_a": 0.5234952118073927, "error_pp": 0.024895644531752747, "raw_error_pp": 0.7103850783739096, "interval_95": [0.5154187990924125, 0.5178618358455297], "covered": true, "sd": 0.000623235108684954, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105284289, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "raw_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5163913610236536, 0.5163913610236536], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105542273, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.008458601227964836, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.4513303728281872, "raw_share_a": 0.8695577659788964, "error_pp": -6.506098819546635, "raw_error_pp": 35.31664049552429, "interval_95": [0.41030370509549685, 0.4923570405608776], "covered": false, "sd": 0.020932357804883325, "probability_a": 0.010033559617540174, "brier": 0.9800335530835185, "expected_valid": 101867753, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.043507372633522876, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.4735030066420591, "raw_share_a": 0.8335520170771497, "error_pp": -4.28883543815945, "raw_error_pp": 31.71606560534961, "interval_95": [0.43841799983083984, 0.5085880134532783], "covered": false, "sd": 0.017900842470177626, "probability_a": 0.06940870072445114, "brier": 0.8660001662873541, "expected_valid": 101990810, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.08851849343816956, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.48616614236612865, "raw_share_a": 0.8118622719988765, "error_pp": -3.022521865752492, "raw_error_pp": 29.547091097522294, "interval_95": [0.4540523266202247, 0.5182799581120325], "covered": true, "sd": 0.016384900817517017, "probability_a": 0.19924942907968762, "brier": 0.6412014768292064, "expected_valid": 102150275, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.18089514710375812, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.4983195316745436, "raw_share_a": 0.779155445830039, "error_pp": -1.8071829349109947, "raw_error_pp": 26.276408480638548, "interval_95": [0.469941997514326, 0.5266970658347612], "covered": true, "sd": 0.014478599688676722, "probability_a": 0.4538002494454767, "brier": 0.2983341675058235, "expected_valid": 102462895, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.3753421152868292, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5148145876803074, "raw_share_a": 0.7070757748559491, "error_pp": -0.15767733433461606, "raw_error_pp": 19.06844138322955, "interval_95": [0.5053614263751158, 0.524267748985499], "covered": true, "sd": 0.004823130070343943, "probability_a": 0.9989353233250533, "brier": 1.133536422175553e-06, "expected_valid": 103032738, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5761963928898898, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5185677277965973, "raw_share_a": 0.6416816567265623, "error_pp": 0.21763667729437497, "raw_error_pp": 12.529029570290874, "interval_95": [0.511908663731433, 0.5252267918617617], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0033975440697708724, "probability_a": 0.9999999768603988, "brier": 5.354411453204872e-16, "expected_valid": 103702520, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7826880514502469, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5187040151885264, "raw_share_a": 0.5813119632122711, "error_pp": 0.23126541648728072, "raw_error_pp": 6.49206021886175, "interval_95": [0.5144681213201563, 0.5229399090568965], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0021612100366996774, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104485909, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9451091507191626, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5168701479359405, "raw_share_a": 0.5340976359775471, "error_pp": 0.0478786912286977, "raw_error_pp": 1.7706274953893542, "interval_95": [0.5154382495920602, 0.5183020462798209], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0007305737982332262, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105267053, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "raw_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5163913610236536, 0.5163913610236536], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105542273, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.010702782571302022, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5264060406440357, "raw_share_a": 0.1660885838830874, "error_pp": 1.001467962038216, "raw_error_pp": -35.030277714056616, "interval_95": [0.4977066351301372, 0.5551054461579343], "covered": true, "sd": 0.014642822783427939, "probability_a": 0.964332864784645, "brier": 0.0012721445344704187, "expected_valid": 101894124, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.05493273770975162, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5288608808334507, "raw_share_a": 0.21142823927864132, "error_pp": 1.2469519809797158, "raw_error_pp": -30.496312174501227, "interval_95": [0.5090703608741172, 0.5486514007927843], "covered": true, "sd": 0.010097389523141015, "probability_a": 0.9978700883028229, "brier": 4.536523837771978e-06, "expected_valid": 102121589, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.10968225973302659, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5289324250298041, "raw_share_a": 0.2429216537672613, "error_pp": 1.2541064006150515, "raw_error_pp": -27.34697072563923, "interval_95": [0.5131914725069618, 0.5446733775526463], "covered": true, "sd": 0.008031245738616735, "probability_a": 0.9998424038988287, "brier": 2.483653110438695e-08, "expected_valid": 102406963, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.21731266864036555, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5275239458089805, "raw_share_a": 0.28247887036059505, "error_pp": 1.113258478532697, "raw_error_pp": -23.391249066305853, "interval_95": [0.5144117018216268, 0.5406361897963343], "covered": true, "sd": 0.006690043280057045, "probability_a": 0.9999805708779044, "brier": 3.7749078540676724e-10, "expected_valid": 102902777, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.42382536142650634, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5259725107147748, "raw_share_a": 0.34600202917443484, "error_pp": 0.9581149691121227, "raw_error_pp": -17.038933184921873, "interval_95": [0.5165874761190585, 0.5353575453104911], "covered": false, "sd": 0.0047883709066677965, "probability_a": 0.9999999708732363, "brier": 8.483683617493635e-16, "expected_valid": 103688782, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.6245194283431815, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5200708834185058, "raw_share_a": 0.4018054653696073, "error_pp": 0.36795223948522526, "raw_error_pp": -11.458589565404626, "interval_95": [0.5143859197574807, 0.5257558470795309], "covered": true, "sd": 0.002900544939103535, "probability_a": 0.9999999999977369, "brier": 5.121524810409996e-24, "expected_valid": 104357315, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.8191618632280167, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5181894251043309, "raw_share_a": 0.4583855606431025, "error_pp": 0.17980640806772863, "raw_error_pp": -5.8005800380551085, "interval_95": [0.5150971528484574, 0.5212816973602044], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0015777189049765855, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104926300, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9565275612360556, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5164639726956548, "raw_share_a": 0.5019620551689766, "error_pp": 0.007261167200123264, "raw_error_pp": -1.4429305854676944, "interval_95": [0.5155544639419829, 0.5173734814493267], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0004640436016538537, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105397070, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2014, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "predicted_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "raw_share_a": 0.5163913610236536, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5163913610236536, 0.5163913610236536], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105542273, "actual_valid": 105542273}, {"year": 2018, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.009986068796526033, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4418273749411446, "raw_share_a": 0.4433518287330444, "error_pp": -0.687031225854956, "raw_error_pp": -0.5345858466649756, "interval_95": [0.4150316210500221, 0.4686231288322671], "covered": true, "sd": 0.013671554115852361, "probability_a": 1.0451896222014172e-05, "brier": 1.0924213463575413e-10, "expected_valid": 106692577, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.04997895196254385, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4404348737918268, "raw_share_a": 0.44811804270104705, "error_pp": -0.8262813407867386, "raw_error_pp": -0.05796444986471139, "interval_95": [0.41956542530950874, 0.4613043222741448], "covered": true, "sd": 0.010647873370285395, "probability_a": 1.1089309197571633e-08, "brier": 1.229727784793468e-16, "expected_valid": 106618387, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.10001398051729975, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4415210029071727, "raw_share_a": 0.4488446298503787, "error_pp": -0.717668429252144, "raw_error_pp": 0.014694265068454504, "interval_95": [0.4226747230197906, 0.46036728279455486], "covered": true, "sd": 0.009615625535663993, "probability_a": 5.947106341892319e-10, "brier": 3.5368073841775844e-19, "expected_valid": 106525552, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.20005837917587593, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4427119359933675, "raw_share_a": 0.4491468932940419, "error_pp": -0.5985751206326662, "raw_error_pp": 0.04492060943477316, "interval_95": [0.42639905174490705, 0.45902482024182795], "covered": true, "sd": 0.008323052999167552, "probability_a": 2.9290395933326674e-12, "brier": 8.579272939310398e-24, "expected_valid": 106340534, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.4000160894702744, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4452345275258848, "raw_share_a": 0.44929846035456644, "error_pp": -0.3463159673809335, "raw_error_pp": 0.060077315487228056, "interval_95": [0.43317082011598984, 0.4572982349357798], "covered": true, "sd": 0.006155065812379696, "probability_a": 2.8526996862519445e-19, "brier": 8.137895499941943e-38, "expected_valid": 105963795, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5999541314651081, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4469582607828996, "raw_share_a": 0.44917162734854976, "error_pp": -0.17394264167945872, "raw_error_pp": 0.047394014885560054, "interval_95": [0.4389447101451571, 0.454971811420642], "covered": true, "sd": 0.004088621340872808, "probability_a": 8.702541801745369e-39, "brier": 7.573423381112553e-77, "expected_valid": 105589820, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7998190134901738, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4479422889079751, "raw_share_a": 0.44876329049549046, "error_pp": -0.0755398291719056, "raw_error_pp": 0.006560329579630153, "interval_95": [0.4439380032879596, 0.4519465745279906], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0020430403925865478, "probability_a": 1.6210716156751833e-143, "brier": 2.627873183147749e-286, "expected_valid": 105208970, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9500028009680733, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4485668548856994, "raw_share_a": 0.4488181880861622, "error_pp": -0.013083231399474426, "raw_error_pp": 0.012050088646803347, "interval_95": [0.4475660457688017, 0.4495676640025971], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0005106262752263333, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104932582, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "raw_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.44869768719969416, 0.44869768719969416], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104838753, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.011512784781024627, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.46643904120265933, "raw_share_a": 0.4991756325259779, "error_pp": 1.774135400296517, "raw_error_pp": 5.047794532628375, "interval_95": [0.37659152404072394, 0.5562865583645947], "covered": true, "sd": 0.045841411965697035, "probability_a": 0.23205069747733192, "brier": 0.05384752619971622, "expected_valid": 106743101, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.05518215196626766, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4588406342823999, "raw_share_a": 0.5706138115904853, "error_pp": 1.0142947082705744, "raw_error_pp": 12.191612439079114, "interval_95": [0.38202716361252553, 0.5356541049522743], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0391912660997214, "probability_a": 0.14680899110162027, "brier": 0.02155287986827562, "expected_valid": 106896146, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.10408938191014157, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.473916548120029, "raw_share_a": 0.628860983737974, "error_pp": 2.5218860920334816, "raw_error_pp": 18.016329653827988, "interval_95": [0.4095796623755703, 0.5382534338644877], "covered": true, "sd": 0.03282554462452302, "probability_a": 0.21342067957248195, "brier": 0.04554838646918002, "expected_valid": 106969982, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.20784148395965754, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4601288566381668, "raw_share_a": 0.6639462553239257, "error_pp": 1.1431169438472666, "raw_error_pp": 21.524856812423153, "interval_95": [0.40610291804436416, 0.5141547952319695], "covered": true, "sd": 0.027564760676115806, "probability_a": 0.07402502877010235, "brier": 0.00547970488441448, "expected_valid": 107080882, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.4051192501307222, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.46336021998535326, "raw_share_a": 0.5741704390757087, "error_pp": 1.46625327856591, "raw_error_pp": 12.547275187601459, "interval_95": [0.41946003920192926, 0.5072604007687773], "covered": true, "sd": 0.022398462820451808, "probability_a": 0.050938975671552256, "brier": 0.0025947792424669924, "expected_valid": 106660734, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.6029236250072528, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4553530248135052, "raw_share_a": 0.5181662370151977, "error_pp": 0.6655337613811041, "raw_error_pp": 6.946854981550354, "interval_95": [0.43568986505675467, 0.47501618457025574], "covered": true, "sd": 0.01003240863441908, "probability_a": 4.288024365718906e-06, "brier": 1.8387152960999027e-11, "expected_valid": 105934454, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.8070416957363085, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.45096335955570654, "raw_share_a": 0.4685766785887287, "error_pp": 0.22656723560123826, "raw_error_pp": 1.987899138903454, "interval_95": [0.4437218804990939, 0.4582048386123192], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00369470003357851, "probability_a": 1.678863345214343e-40, "brier": 2.818582131904294e-80, "expected_valid": 105376372, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9520023192187339, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.449608945643133, "raw_share_a": 0.45175393773021494, "error_pp": 0.09112584434388116, "raw_error_pp": 0.30562505305207766, "interval_95": [0.44614688193063523, 0.4530710093556307], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0017663914809138018, "probability_a": 2.6574702360822647e-179, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105057849, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "raw_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.44869768719969416, 0.44869768719969416], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104838753, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.008795592980774963, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.39901587143618394, "raw_share_a": 0.40237539840302605, "error_pp": -4.9681815763510215, "raw_error_pp": -4.632228879666811, "interval_95": [0.30690938783429117, 0.4911223550380767], "covered": true, "sd": 0.04699396703301325, "probability_a": 0.015822182318360203, "brier": 0.0002503414533154303, "expected_valid": 106644058, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.0479780315586165, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4140804792731718, "raw_share_a": 0.38814626049487105, "error_pp": -3.461720792652234, "raw_error_pp": -6.055142670482311, "interval_95": [0.35035569652655957, 0.47780526201978407], "covered": true, "sd": 0.03251324144046128, "probability_a": 0.004113597526826582, "brier": 1.6921684612713768e-05, "expected_valid": 106493222, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.09423097583009214, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4134011224445027, "raw_share_a": 0.3831641640326436, "error_pp": -3.529656475519144, "raw_error_pp": -6.553352316705058, "interval_95": [0.3678470810793216, 0.4589551638096838], "covered": true, "sd": 0.023242284738485542, "probability_a": 9.730232693511231e-05, "brier": 9.467742826987482e-09, "expected_valid": 106397032, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.1929442731925665, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.41428864202814863, "raw_share_a": 0.3655122837673275, "error_pp": -3.4409045171545527, "raw_error_pp": -8.31854034323667, "interval_95": [0.3828863350122692, 0.44569094904402806], "covered": false, "sd": 0.01602187949160263, "probability_a": 4.4063609262760044e-08, "brier": 1.941601661261193e-15, "expected_valid": 106175312, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.39710609682661907, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4255455012165264, "raw_share_a": 0.3431827665320238, "error_pp": -2.3152185983167763, "raw_error_pp": -10.551492066767038, "interval_95": [0.39919885132211297, 0.45189215111093983], "covered": true, "sd": 0.013442415214980193, "probability_a": 1.5229827489677356e-08, "brier": 2.3194764536533207e-16, "expected_valid": 105615872, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5948742637181119, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.43187685829691774, "raw_share_a": 0.3631943853398291, "error_pp": -1.682082890277642, "raw_error_pp": -8.550330185986505, "interval_95": [0.41491406342431025, 0.44883965316952523], "covered": true, "sd": 0.008654646142790105, "probability_a": 1.7551572557842593e-15, "brier": 3.0805769925321317e-30, "expected_valid": 104889722, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.79211371390501, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44624492224066425, "raw_share_a": 0.39224518399319186, "error_pp": -0.24527649590299072, "raw_error_pp": -5.645250320650231, "interval_95": [0.4380520486487885, 0.45443779583254], "covered": true, "sd": 0.004180114324485426, "probability_a": 3.7928048389683596e-38, "brier": 1.4385368546501804e-75, "expected_valid": 104472374, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9447765369738803, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4487174775306976, "raw_share_a": 0.441564905616496, "error_pp": 0.0019790331003410877, "raw_error_pp": -0.7132781583198189, "interval_95": [0.4469182067731911, 0.45051674828820404], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0009180121458896405, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104655243, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "raw_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.44869768719969416, 0.44869768719969416], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104838753, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.010158714879029513, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44011073479839113, "raw_share_a": 0.4320369342749057, "error_pp": -0.8586952401303027, "raw_error_pp": -1.666075292478847, "interval_95": [0.35547332970737683, 0.5247481398894054], "covered": true, "sd": 0.043183142695995595, "probability_a": 0.08274119765843374, "brier": 0.006846105789952001, "expected_valid": 106677680, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.05282895724637244, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4563742467680841, "raw_share_a": 0.3827640298260077, "error_pp": 0.7676559568389918, "raw_error_pp": -6.593365737368645, "interval_95": [0.42038121193671346, 0.4923672815994547], "covered": true, "sd": 0.018364130581669164, "probability_a": 0.008760319550044407, "brier": 7.674319861889024e-05, "expected_valid": 106522933, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.10744552636943326, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4601728345242909, "raw_share_a": 0.375912017048317, "error_pp": 1.1475147324596757, "raw_error_pp": -7.278567015137716, "interval_95": [0.4362397930988161, 0.48410587594976573], "covered": true, "sd": 0.012210959704093959, "probability_a": 0.0005539428585993221, "brier": 3.068526905931886e-07, "expected_valid": 106367053, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.21746569229033086, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4593543615550028, "raw_share_a": 0.3802860602683506, "error_pp": 1.0656674355308648, "raw_error_pp": -6.841162693134356, "interval_95": [0.4417765724826872, 0.4769321506273184], "covered": true, "sd": 0.008968424456936767, "probability_a": 2.9202531628300003e-06, "brier": 8.52787853501862e-12, "expected_valid": 106137952, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.4347663215719477, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.456005512387817, "raw_share_a": 0.3837229101245122, "error_pp": 0.7307825188122841, "raw_error_pp": -6.497477707518195, "interval_95": [0.44388508224798157, 0.46812594252765244], "covered": true, "sd": 0.006184006512280546, "probability_a": 5.626683852209395e-13, "brier": 3.1659571172713963e-25, "expected_valid": 105813254, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.6387666400419699, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.45290831727870645, "raw_share_a": 0.3935439397780697, "error_pp": 0.42106300790122897, "raw_error_pp": -5.515374742162448, "interval_95": [0.4451782605046811, 0.4606383740527318], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00394397895778969, "probability_a": 3.6547595622777345e-33, "brier": 1.3357267458060537e-65, "expected_valid": 105502604, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.8243621611943438, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44992400483792616, "raw_share_a": 0.4240414251873423, "error_pp": 0.12263176382319996, "raw_error_pp": -2.465626201235188, "interval_95": [0.44622924790384966, 0.45361876177200267], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0018851146929619593, "probability_a": 8.873078577083173e-156, "brier": 7.873152343509e-311, "expected_valid": 105221864, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9579559382969769, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4489215099950316, "raw_share_a": 0.44516466873255134, "error_pp": 0.02238227953374472, "raw_error_pp": -0.35330184671428233, "interval_95": [0.4480481124168209, 0.4497949075732423], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0004456191941335068, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104983826, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "raw_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.44869768719969416, 0.44869768719969416], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104838753, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.008168964008948103, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4270469626015983, "raw_share_a": 0.4741109543870793, "error_pp": -2.1650724598095863, "raw_error_pp": 2.5413267187385125, "interval_95": [0.3970158492909269, 0.4570780759122697], "covered": true, "sd": 0.015322278016673456, "probability_a": 9.620370725939887e-07, "brier": 9.255153290452115e-13, "expected_valid": 106678432, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.04208615491639814, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.433863761678094, "raw_share_a": 0.5286295458563185, "error_pp": -1.4833925521600178, "raw_error_pp": 7.993185865662433, "interval_95": [0.41005268303372305, 0.4576748403224649], "covered": true, "sd": 0.012148732652421645, "probability_a": 2.6066226271357777e-08, "brier": 6.794481520296223e-16, "expected_valid": 106566598, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.08573463287950402, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4334111956073452, "raw_share_a": 0.5490229978665627, "error_pp": -1.528649159234896, "raw_error_pp": 10.032531066686856, "interval_95": [0.413967599054719, 0.4528547921599714], "covered": true, "sd": 0.009920384533912944, "probability_a": 9.577642787167642e-12, "brier": 9.173124135858436e-23, "expected_valid": 106468761, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.1756459274176983, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.43367310986849683, "raw_share_a": 0.5644062016345814, "error_pp": -1.502457733119733, "raw_error_pp": 11.570851443488728, "interval_95": [0.4164125974353155, 0.45093362230167816], "covered": true, "sd": 0.008806545647359512, "probability_a": 2.5071814753542526e-14, "brier": 6.285958950359526e-28, "expected_valid": 106330065, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.36129017101147703, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.43479603280246787, "raw_share_a": 0.5463849489868724, "error_pp": -1.3901654397226293, "raw_error_pp": 9.768726178717824, "interval_95": [0.4212348689539256, 0.44835719665101015], "covered": false, "sd": 0.006919088232509527, "probability_a": 2.1756667212384427e-21, "brier": 4.733525681904436e-42, "expected_valid": 106047321, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5650306046658148, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4402688456534787, "raw_share_a": 0.4988068795530585, "error_pp": -0.8428841546215482, "raw_error_pp": 5.010919235336436, "interval_95": [0.43104497289441257, 0.4494927184125448], "covered": true, "sd": 0.004706143969514813, "probability_a": 3.2677071379043967e-37, "brier": 1.0677909939111344e-73, "expected_valid": 105736990, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7824772581947822, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44584363451033154, "raw_share_a": 0.4675767371407493, "error_pp": -0.28540526893626184, "raw_error_pp": 1.887904994105516, "interval_95": [0.4411781852863426, 0.45050908373432047], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0023803749579017494, "probability_a": 6.982865635089539e-115, "brier": 4.876041247771444e-229, "expected_valid": 105409741, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9472514519511692, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44831193364847366, "raw_share_a": 0.45234864258214097, "error_pp": -0.03857535512205024, "raw_error_pp": 0.3650955382446808, "interval_95": [0.447035233278493, 0.44958863401845434], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0006513897040867351, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105029962, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "raw_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.44869768719969416, 0.44869768719969416], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104838753, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.009566910815888854, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.3969354164554522, "raw_share_a": 0.45745840158806284, "error_pp": -5.176227074424195, "raw_error_pp": 0.8760714388368673, "interval_95": [0.29362390748770084, 0.5002469254232036], "covered": true, "sd": 0.052710921714761785, "probability_a": 0.025275045983504812, "brier": 0.0006388279494682828, "expected_valid": 106669615, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.051785812446662735, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4175136504055148, "raw_share_a": 0.5656735111877343, "error_pp": -3.118403679417936, "raw_error_pp": 11.697582398804018, "interval_95": [0.34335518362790574, 0.49167211718312387], "covered": true, "sd": 0.03783664739638538, "probability_a": 0.014626322946328249, "brier": 0.00021392932293028827, "expected_valid": 106575080, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.10423480523466357, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.41865144645956337, "raw_share_a": 0.6470413613953416, "error_pp": -3.004624074013079, "raw_error_pp": 19.834367419564746, "interval_95": [0.3449151888270293, 0.4923877040920974], "covered": true, "sd": 0.037621230610630614, "probability_a": 0.015297359319562512, "brier": 0.00023400920215180604, "expected_valid": 106720802, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.2031015096106685, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4485256513045079, "raw_share_a": 0.5929678279280675, "error_pp": -0.017203589518627327, "raw_error_pp": 14.42701407283733, "interval_95": [0.38828079426096107, 0.5087705083480547], "covered": true, "sd": 0.030737736531664256, "probability_a": 0.0470033832803941, "brier": 0.002209318039803632, "expected_valid": 106587514, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.3916389295473593, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.442856871725454, "raw_share_a": 0.528831786366023, "error_pp": -0.5840815474240146, "raw_error_pp": 8.013409916632884, "interval_95": [0.3961568737190872, 0.48955686973182083], "covered": true, "sd": 0.02382696723325878, "probability_a": 0.008236710487998688, "brier": 6.784339966310759e-05, "expected_valid": 105942204, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5951063248529864, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44838749487306817, "raw_share_a": 0.5195301570174357, "error_pp": -0.031019232662599094, "raw_error_pp": 7.083246981774149, "interval_95": [0.4101246176582264, 0.48665037208790995], "covered": true, "sd": 0.019522234701679107, "probability_a": 0.004099289116861549, "brier": 1.6804171263619538e-05, "expected_valid": 106042220, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7988626114238501, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4459480146250362, "raw_share_a": 0.4794416857627828, "error_pp": -0.27496725746579687, "raw_error_pp": 3.0743998563088626, "interval_95": [0.43884485529309686, 0.45305117395697553], "covered": true, "sd": 0.003624127449248722, "probability_a": 1.32663192063896e-50, "brier": 1.759952252858216e-100, "expected_valid": 105555159, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9508663270727762, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44839363485952477, "raw_share_a": 0.45405049211717724, "error_pp": -0.030405234016939175, "raw_error_pp": 0.5352804917483078, "interval_95": [0.44653388242372277, 0.45025338729532677], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0009488707118100193, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 105016005, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "raw_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.44869768719969416, 0.44869768719969416], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104838753, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.00892554492707482, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.462952085313909, "raw_share_a": 0.9031507582744407, "error_pp": 1.4254398114214861, "raw_error_pp": 45.445307107474655, "interval_95": [0.4017243562295505, 0.5241798143982676], "covered": true, "sd": 0.031239211069365832, "probability_a": 0.11782246210402264, "brier": 0.013882132576253852, "expected_valid": 106725938, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.04439736134595191, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4538727031425023, "raw_share_a": 0.8687948001144683, "error_pp": 0.5175015942808114, "raw_error_pp": 42.009711291477416, "interval_95": [0.40381488074138067, 0.5039305255436239], "covered": true, "sd": 0.025540174411939006, "probability_a": 0.03545384355468897, "brier": 0.0012569750228003604, "expected_valid": 106746001, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.0889181980254954, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4532087318503795, "raw_share_a": 0.8390971621869943, "error_pp": 0.45110446506853585, "raw_error_pp": 39.03994749873001, "interval_95": [0.40573585435711607, 0.5006816093436429], "covered": true, "sd": 0.02422130074494401, "probability_a": 0.026690672305942877, "brier": 0.000712391988143226, "expected_valid": 106720255, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.18201792232305547, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4390693298507421, "raw_share_a": 0.7847498958733569, "error_pp": -0.9628357348952066, "raw_error_pp": 33.60522086736627, "interval_95": [0.4102339607088183, 0.4679046989926659], "covered": true, "sd": 0.014712193255551544, "probability_a": 1.725147093601012e-05, "brier": 2.976132494560019e-10, "expected_valid": 106704569, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.3787559930248312, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4344395108084785, "raw_share_a": 0.6645383713926251, "error_pp": -1.4258176391215682, "raw_error_pp": 21.58406841929309, "interval_95": [0.4200087174836738, 0.44887030413328316], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0073627848903371155, "probability_a": 2.6860552290872837e-19, "brier": 7.21489269370714e-38, "expected_valid": 106415129, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5822070394141372, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4372214813862044, "raw_share_a": 0.5728273402770019, "error_pp": -1.1476205813489737, "raw_error_pp": 12.412965307730772, "interval_95": [0.4268690565388665, 0.4475739062335424], "covered": false, "sd": 0.005281946427249661, "probability_a": 7.040389915319254e-33, "brier": 4.956709015972905e-65, "expected_valid": 105917905, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.787880231654415, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4431554348909184, "raw_share_a": 0.5055147626982496, "error_pp": -0.5542252308775752, "raw_error_pp": 5.681707549855542, "interval_95": [0.4372417511066017, 0.44906911867523513], "covered": true, "sd": 0.003017241022955887, "probability_a": 1.7776731160541922e-79, "brier": 3.1601217075418213e-158, "expected_valid": 105392856, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9458449109939338, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4473616845910455, "raw_share_a": 0.462981100844069, "error_pp": -0.13360026086486343, "raw_error_pp": 1.4283413644374854, "interval_95": [0.4456224745987785, 0.44910089458331254], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0008873683354729941, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104983882, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "raw_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.44869768719969416, 0.44869768719969416], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104838753, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.011071011117425252, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4604934083376664, "raw_share_a": 0.1744516749363084, "error_pp": 1.1795721137972226, "raw_error_pp": -27.424601226338574, "interval_95": [0.41332403541314044, 0.5076627812621923], "covered": true, "sd": 0.02406644863095747, "probability_a": 0.05034030022042991, "brier": 0.0025341458262830153, "expected_valid": 106686878, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.05401916598531079, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4562124325574628, "raw_share_a": 0.1997195275830249, "error_pp": 0.7514745357768637, "raw_error_pp": -24.89781596166693, "interval_95": [0.42243910221155984, 0.48998576290336576], "covered": true, "sd": 0.017231607491720754, "probability_a": 0.005524913124888614, "brier": 3.0524665037566474e-05, "expected_valid": 106567935, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.10699892624628986, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4524183901203426, "raw_share_a": 0.2139994940109474, "error_pp": 0.3720702920648411, "raw_error_pp": -23.469819318874677, "interval_95": [0.4227555055036442, 0.48208127473704093], "covered": true, "sd": 0.015134402783264557, "probability_a": 0.0008334564226760666, "brier": 6.946496084999861e-07, "expected_valid": 106421454, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.21223643322045235, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44610457696270683, "raw_share_a": 0.2374005324709627, "error_pp": -0.2593110236987328, "raw_error_pp": -21.129715472873144, "interval_95": [0.42000159787629104, 0.4722075560491226], "covered": true, "sd": 0.01331809109066073, "probability_a": 2.5963181730107568e-05, "brier": 6.740868055505914e-10, "expected_valid": 106158532, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.4178279476483281, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4498509658656255, "raw_share_a": 0.2756802881782105, "error_pp": 0.11532786659313454, "raw_error_pp": -17.301739902148366, "interval_95": [0.43048205974397186, 0.46921987198727916], "covered": true, "sd": 0.009882276471227856, "probability_a": 1.9411115959796696e-07, "brier": 3.7679142280467403e-14, "expected_valid": 105630413, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.6213624650800644, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44872012915814485, "raw_share_a": 0.317176680559311, "error_pp": 0.0022441958450691857, "raw_error_pp": -13.152100664038318, "interval_95": [0.43762404533772475, 0.45981621297856495], "covered": true, "sd": 0.005661371239686082, "probability_a": 6.65214409835947e-20, "brier": 4.4251021105338723e-39, "expected_valid": 105137081, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.8180334804249341, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4480847679112443, "raw_share_a": 0.37397001991916895, "error_pp": -0.061291928844986465, "raw_error_pp": -7.472766728052521, "interval_95": [0.4427360250686038, 0.45343351075388477], "covered": true, "sd": 0.002729000554418595, "probability_a": 5.444625703397736e-81, "brier": 2.964394905009929e-161, "expected_valid": 104846711, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.955587262660402, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.4484730151921373, "raw_share_a": 0.429178019647069, "error_pp": -0.022467200755688088, "raw_error_pp": -1.9519667552625186, "interval_95": [0.44686329751886383, 0.45008273286541073], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0008212996122752507, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104806813, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2018, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "predicted_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "raw_share_a": 0.44869768719969416, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.44869768719969416, 0.44869768719969416], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 0.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 104838753, "actual_valid": 104838753}, {"year": 2022, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.010021184480412632, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.515121234754688, "raw_share_a": 0.5041913748332331, "error_pp": 0.6097183582966403, "raw_error_pp": -0.4832676338488495, "interval_95": [0.48764003454284793, 0.542602434966528], "covered": true, "sd": 0.014021278049923388, "probability_a": 0.8595833083506911, "brier": 0.019716847293737103, "expected_valid": 115815223, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.04998228082406766, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5156080137779315, "raw_share_a": 0.5085152907332812, "error_pp": 0.658396260620997, "raw_error_pp": -0.05087604384403921, "interval_95": [0.4950208102271471, 0.5361952173287159], "covered": true, "sd": 0.010503868209204046, "probability_a": 0.9313511924957403, "brier": 0.004712658771756906, "expected_valid": 115926232, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.09993751874330153, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5142251949674472, "raw_share_a": 0.5091445453124404, "error_pp": 0.5201143795725671, "raw_error_pp": 0.01204941407187965, "interval_95": [0.4959393225213516, 0.5325110674135429], "covered": true, "sd": 0.009329698120014275, "probability_a": 0.9363357604836229, "brier": 0.004053135393198634, "expected_valid": 116063917, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.19990595209864792, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5126382628613204, "raw_share_a": 0.5093756061618812, "error_pp": 0.36142116895988563, "raw_error_pp": 0.03515549901595971, "interval_95": [0.4970177998751018, 0.5282587258475391], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00796977035609768, "probability_a": 0.9436048245442094, "brier": 0.0031804158146894117, "expected_valid": 116338711, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.3999298605233082, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5109551935462225, "raw_share_a": 0.5088571765672714, "error_pp": 0.19311423745009826, "raw_error_pp": -0.016687460445019564, "interval_95": [0.49956124261561835, 0.5223491444768268], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0058133470464785085, "probability_a": 0.9702506272603778, "brier": 0.0008850251784009761, "expected_valid": 116890869, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.599838132272246, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5100713848752285, "raw_share_a": 0.5090856111907177, "error_pp": 0.10473337035069585, "raw_error_pp": 0.006156001899615404, "interval_95": [0.5025837716098651, 0.5175589981405919], "covered": true, "sd": 0.003820281018102092, "probability_a": 0.9958091492989057, "brier": 1.7563229598862266e-05, "expected_valid": 117442572, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7998867049058065, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5093786081306202, "raw_share_a": 0.5090571499475406, "error_pp": 0.0354556958898633, "raw_error_pp": 0.0033098775819029314, "interval_95": [0.5056742422237039, 0.5130829740375364], "covered": true, "sd": 0.001890017320173372, "probability_a": 0.9999996514701357, "brier": 1.214730663106837e-13, "expected_valid": 117998560, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9499354938994757, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5090929271525376, "raw_share_a": 0.5090533951650392, "error_pp": 0.006887598081606328, "raw_error_pp": 0.002934399331766535, "interval_95": [0.5081722482666763, 0.510013606038399], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00046974275336758646, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118413256, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "random", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "raw_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5090240511717216, 0.5090240511717216], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118552353, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.011539366072303938, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5360426305875661, "raw_share_a": 0.5548051598698556, "error_pp": 2.7018579415844513, "raw_error_pp": 4.5781108698134005, "interval_95": [0.43957290478155725, 0.632512356393575], "covered": true, "sd": 0.049220151903814985, "probability_a": 0.7679992843510526, "brier": 0.05382433206162376, "expected_valid": 115814291, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.05471892236504154, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5357723906262704, "raw_share_a": 0.5928582098168708, "error_pp": 2.6748339454548797, "raw_error_pp": 8.38341586451492, "interval_95": [0.4527818602054141, 0.6187629210471266], "covered": true, "sd": 0.042342885084040445, "probability_a": 0.8008961366024678, "brier": 0.03964234841982315, "expected_valid": 115923755, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.10280929641269963, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5369489276317841, "raw_share_a": 0.6397492050562655, "error_pp": 2.7924876460062587, "raw_error_pp": 13.072515388454399, "interval_95": [0.4678036179594775, 0.6060942373040908], "covered": true, "sd": 0.035278867199758084, "probability_a": 0.8525283342850174, "brier": 0.021747892188751575, "expected_valid": 115981716, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.2022788615591628, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.534819819357321, "raw_share_a": 0.6691035912935583, "error_pp": 2.5795768185599477, "raw_error_pp": 16.007954012183678, "interval_95": [0.475489433098555, 0.5941502056160871], "covered": true, "sd": 0.030271161234984943, "probability_a": 0.8749823712610589, "brier": 0.015629407495507702, "expected_valid": 116236247, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.4025862902948877, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.528338416159985, "raw_share_a": 0.6083932400304126, "error_pp": 1.9314364988263444, "raw_error_pp": 9.936918885869106, "interval_95": [0.48019961807608286, 0.5764772142438872], "covered": true, "sd": 0.024561062388851106, "probability_a": 0.8757077640088962, "brier": 0.015448559927668248, "expected_valid": 116969365, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.6034970727236431, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5203524954237174, "raw_share_a": 0.5756111893218682, "error_pp": 1.1328444251995862, "raw_error_pp": 6.658713815014661, "interval_95": [0.5003162989376981, 0.5403886919097367], "covered": true, "sd": 0.010222736992117861, "probability_a": 0.9767543189065948, "brier": 0.0005403616894962955, "expected_valid": 117523781, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.8089331638993281, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5105994496830661, "raw_share_a": 0.5331535575306725, "error_pp": 0.15753985113445834, "raw_error_pp": 2.4129506358950947, "interval_95": [0.5032191588249948, 0.5179797405411375], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00376552368210405, "probability_a": 0.9975601314616562, "brier": 5.952958484399765e-06, "expected_valid": 118186519, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9532628677559862, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5099025262777651, "raw_share_a": 0.5140597480137341, "error_pp": 0.08784751060435525, "raw_error_pp": 0.5035696842012549, "interval_95": [0.506386803214437, 0.5134182493410933], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00179376920358138, "probability_a": 0.9999999830994346, "brier": 2.856291105560444e-16, "expected_valid": 118580695, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "east_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "raw_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5090240511717216, 0.5090240511717216], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118552353, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.008407534517682665, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5161444697817584, "raw_share_a": 0.43314809482579586, "error_pp": 0.7120418610036872, "raw_error_pp": -7.58759563459257, "interval_95": [0.4119372245703167, 0.6203517149932002], "covered": true, "sd": 0.05316793839654287, "probability_a": 0.6193029039445087, "brier": 0.14493027894508395, "expected_valid": 115756584, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.04674041349478741, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5117834572052542, "raw_share_a": 0.40683925787728475, "error_pp": 0.2759406033532641, "raw_error_pp": -10.21847932944368, "interval_95": [0.44006069504080114, 0.5835062193697073], "covered": true, "sd": 0.03659391813546222, "probability_a": 0.6262758840817997, "brier": 0.13966971481884044, "expected_valid": 115757797, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.09292497973448068, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5068806273372377, "raw_share_a": 0.40748651451575935, "error_pp": -0.21434238344838485, "raw_error_pp": -10.153753665596222, "interval_95": [0.45769185217111186, 0.5560694025033636], "covered": true, "sd": 0.025096774821438482, "probability_a": 0.6080206298111654, "brier": 0.1536478266536354, "expected_valid": 115876934, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.1910632511865876, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5060772301313892, "raw_share_a": 0.4068536406210446, "error_pp": -0.29468210403323924, "raw_error_pp": -10.217041055067694, "interval_95": [0.47348711905166674, 0.5386673412111116], "covered": true, "sd": 0.016627913104384804, "probability_a": 0.6426247898944203, "brier": 0.12771704079800725, "expected_valid": 116152635, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.3964691784734125, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5048313066714861, "raw_share_a": 0.4076315837287639, "error_pp": -0.41927445002354347, "raw_error_pp": -10.139246744295766, "interval_95": [0.4774655698307917, 0.5321970435121806], "covered": true, "sd": 0.013962367084647698, "probability_a": 0.6353374607702681, "brier": 0.13297876751747575, "expected_valid": 116815943, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5974381546016214, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5081646199833557, "raw_share_a": 0.44206922492286527, "error_pp": -0.08594311883658445, "raw_error_pp": -6.69548262488563, "interval_95": [0.49186143127544263, 0.5244678086912687], "covered": true, "sd": 0.00831810620394715, "probability_a": 0.8368386964054544, "brier": 0.026621610990671483, "expected_valid": 117370074, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7977822085066503, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5092765728805698, "raw_share_a": 0.4684200580852244, "error_pp": 0.02525217088482634, "raw_error_pp": -4.060399308649715, "interval_95": [0.5015356141199409, 0.5170175316411988], "covered": true, "sd": 0.003949541298018198, "probability_a": 0.9905822873236999, "brier": 8.869331205334348e-05, "expected_valid": 118101991, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9452424955243192, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5099211484188187, "raw_share_a": 0.5041738977908781, "error_pp": 0.08970972470971894, "raw_error_pp": -0.48501533808434916, "interval_95": [0.5081805127012579, 0.5116617841363796], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0008880957596980637, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118415516, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "west_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "raw_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5090240511717216, 0.5090240511717216], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118552353, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.010433432729926499, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5165736452642175, "raw_share_a": 0.5609164141552969, "error_pp": 0.7549594092495893, "raw_error_pp": 5.189236298357535, "interval_95": [0.42638807356438135, 0.6067592169640535], "covered": true, "sd": 0.046013891938747914, "probability_a": 0.6406466736605023, "brier": 0.12913481315126152, "expected_valid": 115810023, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.053505956140744, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5073860182366629, "raw_share_a": 0.5049358712724393, "error_pp": -0.16380329350587086, "raw_error_pp": -0.40881798992822294, "interval_95": [0.4711978636530867, 0.543574172820239], "covered": true, "sd": 0.018463683304170978, "probability_a": 0.6554326102292032, "brier": 0.11872668609346021, "expected_valid": 115900850, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.10832669006578047, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.506092869617037, "raw_share_a": 0.4893736240872411, "error_pp": -0.29311815546845255, "raw_error_pp": -1.9650427084480449, "interval_95": [0.48229009556867086, 0.5298956436654032], "covered": true, "sd": 0.01214449553581912, "probability_a": 0.692060028572739, "brier": 0.09482702600262234, "expected_valid": 116031530, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.21803295629231417, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5053528824740182, "raw_share_a": 0.4834940916856492, "error_pp": -0.3671168697703342, "raw_error_pp": -2.552995948607234, "interval_95": [0.4883003694670726, 0.5224053954809638], "covered": true, "sd": 0.008700421541898522, "probability_a": 0.7308032152547108, "brier": 0.07246690891720156, "expected_valid": 116316169, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.43460734178764043, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.504811534959095, "raw_share_a": 0.4766352773071154, "error_pp": -0.4212516212626527, "raw_error_pp": -3.2388773864606146, "interval_95": [0.4932694975210356, 0.5163535723971545], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0058889027747751664, "probability_a": 0.7930504096027774, "brier": 0.04282813296557821, "expected_valid": 116967737, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.6374342818821993, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5062412667220707, "raw_share_a": 0.4760158929017424, "error_pp": -0.27827844496508547, "raw_error_pp": -3.300815826997916, "interval_95": [0.4989755294125689, 0.5135070040315725], "covered": true, "sd": 0.003707076920546388, "probability_a": 0.9538713357961346, "brier": 0.002127853661232974, "expected_valid": 117603415, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.8227762548078653, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5082004912535093, "raw_share_a": 0.493726906180504, "error_pp": -0.08235599182122577, "raw_error_pp": -1.5297144991217537, "interval_95": [0.5047410776911503, 0.5116599048158683], "covered": true, "sd": 0.001765039338660802, "probability_a": 0.9999983083852474, "brier": 2.8615604712411585e-12, "expected_valid": 118105329, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9567251777786309, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5089647260246131, "raw_share_a": 0.5071141167551582, "error_pp": -0.005932514710849102, "raw_error_pp": -0.1909934416563397, "interval_95": [0.5081289635542433, 0.5098004884949828], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0004264172558116963, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118439153, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "large_cities_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "raw_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5090240511717216, 0.5090240511717216], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118552353, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.008471244767280157, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5101373916086763, "raw_share_a": 0.5018012797151409, "error_pp": 0.11133404369547684, "raw_error_pp": -0.7222771456580679, "interval_95": [0.4782618179067728, 0.5420129653105799], "covered": true, "sd": 0.01626334652162157, "probability_a": 0.733465344717905, "brier": 0.0710407224663452, "expected_valid": 115806584, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.043256290324326166, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5170586075721556, "raw_share_a": 0.5517278698786205, "error_pp": 0.8034556400434045, "raw_error_pp": 4.270381870689899, "interval_95": [0.4924989453009887, 0.5416182698433225], "covered": true, "sd": 0.012530670089433727, "probability_a": 0.9132981914680627, "brier": 0.007517203602708719, "expected_valid": 115899761, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.08757777249684787, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5168158633079531, "raw_share_a": 0.5670479249271205, "error_pp": 0.7791812136231591, "raw_error_pp": 5.802387375539897, "interval_95": [0.4978998817669762, 0.5357318448489301], "covered": true, "sd": 0.009651188257017464, "probability_a": 0.9592774362740739, "brier": 0.0016583271964121112, "expected_valid": 116012888, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.17721846482456574, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5161459341570034, "raw_share_a": 0.5801458243077258, "error_pp": 0.7121882985281824, "raw_error_pp": 7.112177313600421, "interval_95": [0.4995885840036036, 0.5327032843104031], "covered": true, "sd": 0.008447782792643022, "probability_a": 0.9720146003119967, "brier": 0.0007831825956972944, "expected_valid": 116234136, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.3626433040936775, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5143403820927979, "raw_share_a": 0.5672642329657017, "error_pp": 0.5316330921076307, "raw_error_pp": 5.824018179398016, "interval_95": [0.5014206734709997, 0.527260090714596], "covered": true, "sd": 0.006591809146391543, "probability_a": 0.9852031054908288, "brier": 0.0002189480871155411, "expected_valid": 116736823, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5654773718409453, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5114061761696621, "raw_share_a": 0.5337211552501941, "error_pp": 0.2382124997940549, "raw_error_pp": 2.4697104078472587, "interval_95": [0.5028121813312451, 0.5200001710080792], "covered": true, "sd": 0.004384771780714867, "probability_a": 0.9953566540815719, "brier": 2.156066131818268e-05, "expected_valid": 117370784, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7819190395993237, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5092647007015717, "raw_share_a": 0.5161298569935587, "error_pp": 0.024064952985014543, "raw_error_pp": 0.7105805821837174, "interval_95": [0.5049546561825551, 0.5135747452205883], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0021990426962008426, "probability_a": 0.9999874033424887, "brier": 1.5867578045696588e-10, "expected_valid": 118018991, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9464735887612454, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5088302286343741, "raw_share_a": 0.5092503368182093, "error_pp": -0.019382253734745447, "raw_error_pp": 0.022628564648774496, "interval_95": [0.5076309178773909, 0.5100295393913573], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0006119044824206939, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118437938, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "small_cities_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "raw_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5090240511717216, 0.5090240511717216], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118552353, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.008927903775979884, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5236366217609232, "raw_share_a": 0.4791170646168265, "error_pp": 1.4612570589201623, "raw_error_pp": -2.9906986554895045, "interval_95": [0.40683206203375705, 0.6404411814880893], "covered": true, "sd": 0.05959525773287985, "probability_a": 0.654175843637292, "brier": 0.11959434712397873, "expected_valid": 115754952, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.04907958258744978, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5253048614013458, "raw_share_a": 0.566660307639426, "error_pp": 1.6280810229624243, "raw_error_pp": 5.763625646770443, "interval_95": [0.4423114897150817, 0.6082982330876099], "covered": true, "sd": 0.04234433473587477, "probability_a": 0.7249456770708176, "brier": 0.07565488056203096, "expected_valid": 115693784, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.09802712224530878, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5247118771753606, "raw_share_a": 0.6435042894342876, "error_pp": 1.568782600363905, "raw_error_pp": 13.448023826256605, "interval_95": [0.44211445888300577, 0.6073092954677154], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0421423139875808, "probability_a": 0.7211936326915107, "brier": 0.07773299045175625, "expected_valid": 115834565, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.19517396672843768, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5191918237526794, "raw_share_a": 0.6135389269399831, "error_pp": 1.0167772580957801, "raw_error_pp": 10.451487576826157, "interval_95": [0.4531351393338563, 0.5852485081715024], "covered": true, "sd": 0.033703009044463605, "probability_a": 0.7154710327015679, "brier": 0.08095673323191226, "expected_valid": 116097844, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.38801300721547044, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5189950441645317, "raw_share_a": 0.560744876261023, "error_pp": 0.9970992992810124, "raw_error_pp": 5.172082508930142, "interval_95": [0.4673020670962255, 0.5706880212328378], "covered": true, "sd": 0.02637445232070903, "probability_a": 0.7643009773900412, "brier": 0.055554029259289865, "expected_valid": 116880010, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5933929122435891, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5168504246038784, "raw_share_a": 0.5537595983722438, "error_pp": 0.7826373432156863, "raw_error_pp": 4.47355472005222, "interval_95": [0.4746939046699957, 0.5590069445377611], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0215088235977205, "probability_a": 0.7833094969998488, "brier": 0.046954774090458555, "expected_valid": 117380291, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7982682385055656, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.508950664595211, "raw_share_a": 0.5237579807672251, "error_pp": -0.007338657651057012, "raw_error_pp": 1.473392959550357, "interval_95": [0.5032931544015171, 0.5146081747889049], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0028865378107423563, "probability_a": 0.9990351065169151, "brier": 9.310194336997635e-07, "expected_valid": 118001304, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9503499352729, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5090398394890868, "raw_share_a": 0.5115175647898939, "error_pp": 0.0015788317365261761, "raw_error_pp": 0.2493513618172294, "interval_95": [0.5073643851153598, 0.5107152938628139], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0008548393611959584, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118427707, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "state_blocks", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "raw_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5090240511717216, 0.5090240511717216], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118552353, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.008677153797192031, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5536712540924099, "raw_share_a": 0.8849554339129987, "error_pp": 4.464720292068836, "raw_error_pp": 37.59313827412771, "interval_95": [0.48722167128506194, 0.6201208368997579], "covered": true, "sd": 0.033903471087911814, "probability_a": 0.9432961897872286, "brier": 0.0032153220926459955, "expected_valid": 115800996, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.043530675430794696, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5484749544399478, "raw_share_a": 0.8490775605619741, "error_pp": 3.94509032682262, "raw_error_pp": 34.005350939025256, "interval_95": [0.4923660272087475, 0.6045838816711481], "covered": true, "sd": 0.028627529501154245, "probability_a": 0.9548006738162848, "brier": 0.002042979087461887, "expected_valid": 115857952, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.08760430929616386, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5457963849503567, "raw_share_a": 0.8199851199202134, "error_pp": 3.677233377863509, "raw_error_pp": 31.096106874849184, "interval_95": [0.49243365496554337, 0.5991591149351699], "covered": true, "sd": 0.027226382721730245, "probability_a": 0.9537213103175207, "brier": 0.0021417171187272143, "expected_valid": 115934616, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.1820994139188448, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5336397178201021, "raw_share_a": 0.7686958787054885, "error_pp": 2.461566664838055, "raw_error_pp": 25.967182753376694, "interval_95": [0.5038213842345596, 0.5634580514056446], "covered": true, "sd": 0.015213714938408337, "probability_a": 0.9864870741235944, "brier": 0.0001825991657412327, "expected_valid": 116139202, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.3846522725702458, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5217170153677478, "raw_share_a": 0.6778355337613082, "error_pp": 1.269296419602628, "raw_error_pp": 16.881148258958667, "interval_95": [0.5085608520838658, 0.5348731786516299], "covered": true, "sd": 0.006712451495987718, "probability_a": 0.9993924951641459, "brier": 3.690621255861712e-07, "expected_valid": 116592534, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.5909529438019674, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5162281893181198, "raw_share_a": 0.6105506109990767, "error_pp": 0.7204138146398198, "raw_error_pp": 10.152655982735514, "interval_95": [0.5074917147645528, 0.5249646638716867], "covered": true, "sd": 0.004457466848149724, "probability_a": 0.9998640380380482, "brier": 1.848565509777136e-08, "expected_valid": 117194318, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.7972968870554598, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5120841759079691, "raw_share_a": 0.5581310234625967, "error_pp": 0.3060124736247505, "raw_error_pp": 4.910697229087512, "interval_95": [0.5074903305039723, 0.5166780213119658], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0023438417256626907, "probability_a": 0.9999998736663664, "brier": 1.5960186967059854e-14, "expected_valid": 117825669, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9493443710897919, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5098480293673149, "raw_share_a": 0.5229055176401889, "error_pp": 0.08239781955933223, "raw_error_pp": 1.388146646846733, "interval_95": [0.5084255606191337, 0.5112704981154961], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0007257626916520636, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118356203, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "a_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "raw_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5090240511717216, 0.5090240511717216], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118552353, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.01, "vote_fraction": 0.010320672420563429, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.49250481707149174, "raw_share_a": 0.20545875083773313, "error_pp": -1.6519234100229818, "raw_error_pp": -30.356530033398844, "interval_95": [0.4414696462129341, 0.5435399879300494], "covered": true, "sd": 0.026038830743094075, "probability_a": 0.3867321700291157, "brier": 0.3760974312771974, "expected_valid": 115825391, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.05, "vote_fraction": 0.050687446077093044, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.49548802252424856, "raw_share_a": 0.24873092814317446, "error_pp": -1.3536028647472997, "raw_error_pp": -26.029312302854713, "interval_95": [0.4634192469511419, 0.5275567980973552], "covered": true, "sd": 0.016361920715434894, "probability_a": 0.3913658703477411, "brier": 0.3704355037775626, "expected_valid": 115984890, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.1, "vote_fraction": 0.10056893598729331, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.49675652964374833, "raw_share_a": 0.27973080558035424, "error_pp": -1.2267521527973224, "raw_error_pp": -22.92932455913673, "interval_95": [0.46843957120578245, 0.5250734880817143], "covered": true, "sd": 0.014447693140264764, "probability_a": 0.4111851230784337, "brier": 0.3467029592841593, "expected_valid": 116165055, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.2, "vote_fraction": 0.20271089853442217, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.4978675080571787, "raw_share_a": 0.31587051086445517, "error_pp": -1.1156543114542838, "raw_error_pp": -19.31535403072664, "interval_95": [0.47340279557479914, 0.5223322205395583], "covered": true, "sd": 0.012482225429844424, "probability_a": 0.43217388869969786, "brier": 0.32242649267442314, "expected_valid": 116515209, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.4, "vote_fraction": 0.4090749510471547, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5005680732391797, "raw_share_a": 0.3623395095074112, "error_pp": -0.8455977932541825, "raw_error_pp": -14.668454166431038, "interval_95": [0.48270052715904876, 0.5184356193193107], "covered": true, "sd": 0.009116262380396246, "probability_a": 0.524843717794061, "brier": 0.2257734925197699, "expected_valid": 117146413, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.6, "vote_fraction": 0.6154008010283861, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5031230353089784, "raw_share_a": 0.40350095336015646, "error_pp": -0.5901015862743164, "raw_error_pp": -10.55230978115651, "interval_95": [0.4935213824384778, 0.5127246881794789], "covered": true, "sd": 0.004898892464606783, "probability_a": 0.7380998209914511, "brier": 0.06859170376470995, "expected_valid": 117746307, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.8, "vote_fraction": 0.8179337191223863, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5066165099428774, "raw_share_a": 0.451193454432225, "error_pp": -0.24075412288441234, "raw_error_pp": -5.783059673949653, "interval_95": [0.501919059841993, 0.5113139600437618], "covered": true, "sd": 0.002396702235798432, "probability_a": 0.9971158756086256, "brier": 8.318173504920874e-06, "expected_valid": 118202002, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 0.95, "vote_fraction": 0.9564500672542535, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5085746905907536, "raw_share_a": 0.49355100246314015, "error_pp": -0.04493605809680057, "raw_error_pp": -1.5473048708581405, "interval_95": [0.5072606842754166, 0.5098886969060905], "covered": true, "sd": 0.000670423699280662, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118481173, "actual_valid": 118552353}, {"year": 2022, "order": "b_strongholds_first", "section_fraction": 1.0, "vote_fraction": 1.0, "actual_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "predicted_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "raw_share_a": 0.5090240511717216, "error_pp": 0.0, "raw_error_pp": 0.0, "interval_95": [0.5090240511717216, 0.5090240511717216], "covered": true, "sd": 0.0, "probability_a": 1.0, "brier": 0.0, "expected_valid": 118552353, "actual_valid": 118552353}], "elapsed_seconds": 17.4, "limitations": ["Section arrival timestamps unavailable; these are reporting-order stress tests, not live chronological replay.", "Historical polling performance is not evaluated in this run; polling integration has separate tests.", "Municipal centers approximate geographic proximity; ZE boundary adjacency is not available.", "Archival datasets downloaded today can contain later revisions; exact historical vintages are unavailable.", "Repeated checkpoints and orders are dependent; they do not constitute independent national elections.", "No empirically calibrated automatic race-call threshold; the joint political arrival model is disabled.", "Initial 2022 diagnostic results were already inspected. This is a retrospective evaluation, not a blinded prospective test."], "calibration": {"config": {"ridge": 30.0, "global_sd": 0.22, "state_sd": 0.16, "local_sd": 0.22, "graph_strength": 1.0, "demographic_strength": 0.2, "partial_sd": 0.16, "observation_floor": 0.025, "turnout_state_sd": 0.04, "interval_scale": 2.3021185320610273, "national_floor": 0.004, "poll_half_life_days": 14.0, "poll_common_sd": 0.025, "poll_house_sd": 0.012, "poll_extra_sd": 0.01}, "development_year": 2014, "uncertainty_calibration_year": 2018, "evaluation_year": 2022, "calibration_multiplier": 1.5745391282627565, "calibration": "95th percentile of absolute standardized errors over predeclared 2018 stress orders, excluding complete count", "audit": "Initial 2022 diagnostic results were already inspected. This is a retrospective evaluation, not a blinded prospective test.", "gate": {"minimum_progress": 0.2, "maximum_median_absolute_error_pp": 0.75, "maximum_p90_absolute_error_pp": 1.5, "minimum_95_interval_coverage": 0.9, "minimum_improvement_over_raw_count": 0.25}}, "final_evaluation": {"checkpoints": 40, "mae_pp": 0.5167074434358293, "median_absolute_error_pp": 0.28648027449916236, "p90_absolute_error_pp": 1.1464896246398906, "worst_absolute_error_pp": 2.5795768185599477, "raw_mae_pp": 5.678005750356162, "improvement_over_raw": 0.9089984289988755, "coverage_95": 1.0, "mean_brier": 0.03105023618522242, "by_progress": [{"section_fraction": 0.01, "mae_pp": 1.5584765468552282, "raw_mae_pp": 11.18760681816081, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.05, "mae_pp": 1.437900494688845, "raw_mae_pp": 11.141282498383896, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.1, "mae_pp": 1.3840014886429448, "raw_mae_pp": 12.309900476544122, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.2, "mae_pp": 1.1136229367799635, "raw_mae_pp": 11.45741852367556, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.4, "mae_pp": 0.8260879264760115, "raw_mae_pp": 8.234679198848546, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.6, "mae_pp": 0.4916455754094787, "raw_mae_pp": 5.538674895073665, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.8, "mae_pp": 0.10984673960945102, "raw_mae_pp": 2.6105130957524634, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 0.95, "mae_pp": 0.042334038904241755, "raw_mae_pp": 0.5487430384305734, "coverage_95": 1.0}, {"section_fraction": 1.0, "mae_pp": 0.0, "raw_mae_pp": 0.0, "coverage_95": 1.0}]}, "retrospective_evaluation_years": [2022], "calibration_years": [2018], "initial_heldout_combined": {"checkpoints": 80, "mae_pp": 0.564978082590583, "median_absolute_error_pp": 0.28184185695067365, "p90_absolute_error_pp": 1.4298612030660027, "worst_absolute_error_pp": 3.4409045171545527, "raw_mae_pp": 6.543912744397355, "improvement_over_raw": 0.9136635672481581, "coverage_95": 0.825, "mean_brier": 0.010957806041214083, "by_progress": [{"section_fraction": 0.01, "mae_pp": 1.9188854548079446, "raw_mae_pp": 11.104302849257131, "coverage_95": 0.875}, {"section_fraction": 0.05, "mae_pp": 1.465245569855933, "raw_mae_pp": 12.539165050092297, "coverage_95": 0.9375}, {"section_fraction": 0.1, "mae_pp": 1.521574101799335, "raw_mae_pp": 13.919925772934278, "coverage_95": 0.8125}, {"section_fraction": 0.2, "mae_pp": 1.118690974539835, "raw_mae_pp": 13.070101906512432, "coverage_95": 0.8125}, {"section_fraction": 0.4, "mae_pp": 0.9364166417340839, "raw_mae_pp": 9.512606267809653, "coverage_95": 0.75}, {"section_fraction": 0.6, "mae_pp": 0.5562221918120909, "raw_mae_pp": 6.439286579628366, "coverage_95": 0.75}, {"section_fraction": 0.8, "mae_pp": 0.1702924329687227, "raw_mae_pp": 3.0691387427944155, "coverage_95": 0.875}, {"section_fraction": 0.95, "mae_pp": 0.04326817189818227, "raw_mae_pp": 0.6284302252419102, "coverage_95": 0.9375}, {"section_fraction": 1.0, "mae_pp": 0.0, "raw_mae_pp": 0.0, "coverage_95": 1.0}]}}