{"updated_at": "2026-10-25T17:36:40.406550+00:00", "status": "awaiting_returns", "experimental": true, "forecast": null, "official": {"a": 0, "b": 0, "valid": 0, "registered": 158745502, "processed_registered": 0, "sections": 499248, "sections_done": 0, "complete": false, "generation": "3943321", "generated_order": 1792880353.0, "source_generated_at": "24/10/2026 19:19:13 America/Sao_Paulo", "source_count_at": "", "candidate_a": {"number": 13, "name": "LULA", "party": "PT"}, "candidate_b": {"number": 22, "name": "FLAVIO BOLSONARO", "party": "PL"}, "source_url": "https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/ele2026/6258/dados/br/br-c0001-e006258-u.json", "received_at": "2026-10-25T15:39:59.026185+00:00", "section_progress": 0.0, "share_a": null}, "hold_reasons": ["Waiting for at least 20% of sections; earlier projections were not approved by the evaluation gate"], "readiness": {"passed": true, "checks": {"median_error": true, "p90_error": true, "coverage": true, "beats_raw": true}, "criteria": {"minimum_progress": 0.2, "maximum_median_absolute_error_pp": 0.75, "maximum_p90_absolute_error_pp": 1.5, "minimum_95_interval_coverage": 0.9, "minimum_improvement_over_raw_count": 0.25}, "scope": "retrospective section-order stress tests, not an actual section-timestamp replay", "allows": "experimental vote-share projections only; no automatic race calls", "evaluation_elections": [2022], "calibration_elections": [2018], "minimum_live_progress": 0.2, "poll_forecast_calibrated": false}, "sensitivity": {"count_only_share_a": null, "poll_shift_pp": null, "polling_component_historically_calibrated": false}, "poll_count": 449, "poll_groups": 149, "rejected_polls": [], "source_health": {"coherent": true, "valid_vote_gap": 0, "candidate_a_vote_gap": 0, "forecast_base_sections": 0, "forecast_base_section_progress": 0.0, "forecast_uses_disjoint_ze_subset": true, "unknown_unit_votes": 0, "baseline_registered_coverage": 0.9999997543237477, "imputed_registered": 498, "captured_valid_votes": 0, "last_success": "2026-10-25T17:36:40.125905+00:00", "pending_units": 0}, "states": [], "model_version": "0.1.0", "limitations": ["Section arrival timestamps unavailable; these are reporting-order stress tests, not live chronological replay.", "Historical polling performance is not evaluated in this run; polling integration has separate tests.", "Municipal centers approximate geographic proximity; ZE boundary adjacency is not available.", "Archival datasets downloaded today can contain later revisions; exact historical vintages are unavailable.", "Repeated checkpoints and orders are dependent; they do not constitute independent national elections.", "No empirically calibrated automatic race-call threshold; the joint political arrival model is disabled.", "Initial 2022 diagnostic results were already inspected. This is a retrospective evaluation, not a blinded prospective test."], "service": {"state": "healthy", "last_success": "2026-10-25T17:36:40.125905+00:00", "last_error": null, "cycles": 169, "pending_units": 0, "poll_interval_seconds": 30, "offline": false}}